Causal Inference and Counterfactuals: An Illustration

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Causal inference tackles the problem of dealing with causal statements. A rigorous statistical formalism to assess causality has been proposed by Pearl.

Pearl’s framework is based on the definition of structural equation models, it introduces the notion of intervention and it connects the (statistical, direction-agnostis, equation-based) observational regime with the (causal, direction-aware, graph-based) interventional regime.

In this notebook, we re-consider an illustrative toy example proposed by Ference Huszar on his blog to explain causal inference in the Pearlian formalism. We re-run the basic simulations for causal inference and we extend the original example in order to illustrate counterfactuals, as well. For a deeper disccussion of the setup, the models and the results, we refer to the original blogpost.

Notebook here